German-based polysilicon producer Wacker Chemie has fallen to fourth place in the list of the world’s top polysilicon firms, which means the Top 3 producers are now all in China. Tongwei, GCL Technology (previously GCL-Poly Energy) and Daqo New Energy now lead the rankings, published by Bernreuter Research.

Polysilicon plant of Tongwei in Leshan, Sichuan province. Credit: Sichuan Daily

Tongwei surpassed Wacker in 2020, and GCL moved into second place in 2021. Each of these two Chinese companies exceeded an annual output of 100,000 metric tons (MT) for the first time in 2021, and each will reach a production capacity of 370,000 MT after massive expansion by 2023.

“Wacker will take a similar course as former market leader Hemlock Semiconductor did a decade ago,” said Johannes Bernreuter, head of Bernreuter Research. “The company is increasingly focusing on expanding its leading position in the electronic-grade polysilicon market for semiconductors; at the same time, it is abandoning more and more market share in the rapidly growing solar-grade sector.”

With Wacker shifting focus away from solar, the company will be overtaken by two more Chinese manufacturers, Xinte Energy and East Hope, within the next year. This will mean the world’s Top 5 solar-grade polysilicon producers will be from China in 2023.

When U.S.-based Hemlock Semiconductor lost its top position in 2012, China had a share of just 30% in global polysilicon production. By 2021, this share had already risen to 76%, and to even more than 80% in the solar-grade sector. Since a gigantic expansion wave is currently underway in China, the country’s share in the global polysilicon output will grow even further: to more than 90%. In wafer, solar cell and module production, the Chinese industry has already reached such or still higher market shares.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has opened the eyes for what it means to be economically dependent on a dictatorial regime. Western governments should not make the same mistake with China,” Bernreuter said. “It is high time to establish non-Chinese solar supply chains. China has demonstrated what the ingredients of success are: low electricity rates for power-hungry polysilicon and ingot production, loan guarantees for private investment, cost-efficient equipment manufacturing and strategic foresight.”

The top 10 polysilicon manufacturers for 2021 include:

Kelly Pickerel has over a decade of experience reporting on the U.S. solar industry and is currently editor in chief of Solar Power World.

“With the intrinsic energy requirements for silicon foundries, it doesn’t seem likely that crystalline silicon solar PV cells will ever be made by solar PV in an end-to-end energy process.”

This statement makes no sense. Silicon crystals are made in induction furnaces using electricity. Why would you suggest that this electricity cannot be PV in origin. Of course storage is necessary but there are plenty of storage solutions. People who claim industrial process can never be powered by batteries are clearly hiding from the truth which is that there are dozens of alternative battery chemistries that can overcome the supply issues such as sodium batteries. Non scarce resources can make batteries cheap and effective even for industrial uses like polysilicon manufacturing. Besides, pumped hydro is already being used for this purpose.

Moreover, with HVDC over sufficient distances, storage becomes less of an issue as the sun’s energy can be converted across time zones. It is simply not the case that PV cannot be used to manufacture PV. This is already being done in China with pumped hydro. Perovskites are a red herring. The West needs to get off its ass and start producing polysilicon but it will never happen in the US. The US is a petro state plain and simple. The US is a lost cause as far as renewables are concerned because its industrial policy is completely in the hands of oil oligarchs that run both political parties.

Thank you for the oversight. This IS the reason tariffs won’t work at the national or international level. When China has 80% of the supply chain of polysilicon and foundry capacity of the World within China’s boarders, you can hurt yourself with tariffs, but China will move right along and serve the World with their product with or without tariffs. The only way to address this is by building your own supply chain and capacity. Do it better, cheaper and use less energy in the process, this is how you stop China from owning the industry.

“Since a gigantic expansion wave is currently underway in China, the country’s share in the global polysilicon output will grow even further: to more than 90%. In wafer, solar cell and module production, the Chinese industry has already reached such or still higher market shares.”

This has pushed the resource ownership and the balance of the supply chain has shifted to China and this country will suffer depending on China’s supply chain to keep the move towards solar PV that will decarbonize the grid. The World as a whole cannot compete to what China has already done. A technology leap to perhaps layered perovskites and thin film would be a better technology gamble for the U.S. and other countries to develop and manufacture. You could probably manufacture Perovskite solar PV panels using Perovskite solar PV panels to power the manufacturing line. With the intrinsic energy requirements for silicon foundries, it doesn’t seem likely that crystalline silicon solar PV cells will ever be made by solar PV in an end-to-end energy process.

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